Downtown construction still thriving

Just because you do not see a myriad of cranes downtown doesn’t mean that there is not a lot of activity going on. It’s just that most of the activity is in projects that have stunted development — are less than 10 stories high.

Of all the projects going vertical in the near term, only two are more than six stories: the new 16-story federal courthouse (Richard Meier, architect) and the 22-story, 224-unit Ariel apartments in Little Italy (AVRP, architect). Admittedly, this was not the dream of Centre City Development Corp., and it will have a substantial effect on the ultimate population of downtown, but it is what it is.

The CCDC dream was to have a downtown of high-rises that would ultimately result in a downtown population of 90,000 (compared to today’s more than 30,000). It now looks like the ultimate population will be in the 50,000-60,000 range. It isn’t devastating, but it’s just not Manhattan.

On the residential side, there are three projects now under construction: the aforementioned Ariel (AVRP Studios, architect); Hanover’s 264-unit, six-story project at 13th and Market; and Alliance's Broadstone, a six- story, 201-unit project in Little Italy at Kettner and Grape. The latter two are designed by Carrier Johnson.

In addition to those three, there are a dozen or so more rental apartment projects in the works, most of them in East Village. The largest is Pinnacle’s 45-story monument at 15th and Island. That project is scheduled to break ground in September and will include a large public park. Most of the others are low-rise projects in East Village. In total, there will be more than 4,000 rental units in the works that will deliver product between 2013 and 2016. Most are architectural products of AVRP Studios and Carrier Johnson.

Fortunately, there are enough renters to fill them. We take this position because over the next three years, many of the condominiums that are now rented out by investors will be put on the market for sale to owner occupants as prices recover. An estimated 3,000 of the 10,000 downtown units are investor-owned/rented.

In addition, our young, educated population continues to grow, and downtown will continue to be the housing mecca for this market. Most may not work downtown, but reverse commuting is a rather common event.

In terms of condominium development, no project has broken ground since 2007, and none will be complete prior to 2015. Most likely, the next one to be built will be by developer Nat Bosa at Broadway and Pacific Highway. It’s a magnificent 41-story tower designed by Kohn Pedersen Fox, one of the nation’s premier architects.

That’s an eight-year hiatus between condominium projects. I would like to think there is some developer in addition to Bosa who will break ground on a condominium project. It may be wishful thinking, but I suspect prices will begin to accelerate in the next year or two, and then maybe developers and lenders will seriously consider new condominium development downtown.

On the nonresidential side, the nine-story library with a tilted hat is nearing completion. It will definitely set the pace for style in East Village, thanks to architects Rob Wellington Quigley and Tucker Sadler.

The San Diego City College does not look for a lot of press, but it has been busy building out the northeast sector of East Village. It recently completed a Career Technology Center, and now immediately west of it is an almost completed 84,000-square-foot Math and Social Sciences Building along with a 400-space parking garage.

Next in line is the new Arts and Humanities Building with 131,000 square feet of classrooms and lab space (completion winter 2013). Finally, a new Science Building is under way with 77,000 square feet, including a planetarium. The city college's more than 60 acres serves more than 25,000 students (almost as many students as San Diego State University). Local Roesling Nakamura Terada Architects designed two of the buildings.

The next public monument expected to break ground is the new state courthouse. It has been scheduled to move forward for about a decade, but most probably will break ground in 2014. It will be a 22-story, 704,000-square-foot, $600 million world-class tower, designed by Skidmore Owings & Merrill.

Optimally, our next mayor will have the guts to move forward with a replacement for our decrepit embarrassment of a city hall. A new City Hall should set the tone for the entire area north of C, an area that desperately needs help.

Finally, there are the big three on the Embarcadero. First is the 364-room hotel (or actually two hotels in one) on the Fat City site, second is the first phase of the Embarcadero (now well under way) and third is the Broadway Complex.

Drive around, or better yet, walk around. Downtown is alive and well.