With three weeks to go until the 2012 election becomes history, the outcomes evident thus far are not likely to change the political directions of most North County cities, despite who is elected. Or, who is not.
Several examples make the point. In Oceanside, where a 3-2 pro-business city council majority calls the shots, Councilman Jerry Kern is the business candidate challenging incumbent Jim Wood for the mayor’s chair in a three-way race that includes a former mayor, Terry Johnson, in a distant third place. It’s a low-stakes race in the mind of most business supporters because win or lose, Kern stays on the council.
If there’s any change, it more likely would be in one of the two council seats up for grabs. Incumbent and business supporter Jack Feller is running, along with union-backed incumbent Esther Sanchez, for new four-year terms. Former Marine and small-business owner Chip Dykes is running a well-financed challenger effort, aimed at squeezing out Sanchez, which could create a business-friendly super cabal if Feller wins as well. But Wood and Sanchez are bringing neighborhoods advocate Dana Corso onto their slate to try to shift the council’s pro-business leanings. Both Feller and Sanchez have well-entrenched constituencies, though, and are the odds-on favorites.
In Escondido, where seven candidates are running for two seats, most local politicos foretell an early-night victory for incumbent Olga Diaz, the well-spoken but lone dissenter on a strong business-driven council. Councilmember and former high school trustee Mike Morasco also is favored to keep the seat he was appointed to fill in 2010. With Mayor Sam Abed and Councilman Ed Gallo, that would leave in place three pro-business members who could keep their super majority by appointing a replacement for business-friendly Marie Waldron, the all-but-certain winner in the 75th Assembly District race.
If there’s any uncertainty hanging over the city, it’s the fate of two propositions — one to update the city’s aged General Plan by creating hundreds of acres of new employment lands; the other to convert Escondido to a charter city, which, among other things, would exempt the city from paying prevailing wages on construction projects and replace at-large elections with council districts.
San Marcos is not only well-off financially, but also devoid of political schisms as it continues to exploit the impressive growth in size and the statewide image of its chief tenant — California State University, San Marcos. It’s North County’s Lake Wobegon, where everybody gets along and is well above average. But an outsider wouldn’t think so, given the massive 4-by-8-foot campaign signs plastered along fences, walls and in open spaces. So much room to say so little. That said, a four-candidate field is led by incumbent Rebecca Jones, who will go home early election night a winner. The second seat, vacated by termed-out Vice Mayor Hal Martin, may be technically open to all of the other three candidates, but the smart money is on school board member and Realtor Sharon Jenkins, whose endorsement by Mayor Jim Desmond is a key factor.
In Vista, it’s a low-profile campaign of indifference, given the likelihood that incumbent Frank Lopez will be re-elected to one of two open seats. Steve Gronke is leaving to run for the Tri-City hospital district board, which leaves eight challengers to grapple for his chair on the council dais.
In Del Mar, incumbent Donald Mosier, businessman Al Corti and retired teacher Sherryl Parks, face no challengers, thereby making them presumptive winners of the three open seats. Likewise, in Carlsbad, incumbent Keith Blackburn and City Clerk Lorraine Wood are the only candidates for the two available council seats.
The two races that could alter their cities’ political ideologies are Encinitas and Solana Beach.
In Encinitas, three seats are open, including those of council appointee Mark Muir and incumbent Jerome Stocks, who currently serves as the city’s mayor and SANDAG chairman. James Bond is retiring. Stocks has high name recognition but high negatives as well, having riled people a number of times over the years. Muir, appointed to fill Maggie Houlihan’s seat when she died last year, has linked his campaign and perhaps political fate with Stocks. Together with real estate attorney and candidate Kevin Forrester, the three could keep the city growth-friendly. On the other hand, Tony Kranz and Lisa Shaffer are running a joint campaign, heavily backed by slow-growth advocates. Should they win, they would join Teresa Barth to form a council majority not keen on much business development.
Also on the Encinitas ballot is a measure voters may well favor to elect the mayor separately, and if so, whether it would be to two- or four-year terms.
Next door in Solana Beach, North County’s smallest city is hosting a three-seat race with three pro-business candidates, endorsed by outgoing Council Member Joe Kellegian. Council Member David Roberts is in a close race against Steve Danon for the 3rd Supervisorial District. Should Kellegian’s support of Paul Frankel, Vickie Driver and Daniel Powell succeed, the new council majority would be far more business-friendly than in anyone’s memory. But if incumbent Lesa Heebner prevails and brings Peter Zahn and David Zito, the city’s stiff-necked approach to economic development would remain in place.
Who will win and lose? The better question: Will all this be over soon?
Daniels, principal consultant of Dick Daniels Public Relations, has been a public relations practitioner for 35 years and was an Escondido city councilman from 2006 to 2010.
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