Next month we will elect many new mayors and council members in this county. They all need to begin thinking about the future housing needs of their jurisdictions.
The San Diego Association of Governments projects that over the next three decades, our county will continue to gain around 30,000 people annually, reaching 4.4 million in 2050. Most of that population gain will be the result of natural household formation (more people being born here than dying).
From a housing standpoint, SANDAG is projecting an annual gain of 9,300 new households, or 1.26 jobs per household. At the same time, they are projecting the annual addition of 9,300 housing units, i.e., one unit for each new household. That makes sense. They also project that 75 percent of the housing units to be developed will be multifamily (apartments and condominiums) and 25 percent single family.
We don’t know how these ratios will evolve during the coming decades, but there are a few factors that tell us that life in San Diego County in the future may not mirror its past, at least from a demographic standpoint.
Based on the 2010 census, two-thirds of all households in this county have no one living there under the age of 18. This somewhat startling statistic relates to several factors: the ongoing reduction in the number of children per household among all ethnic groups; people marrying later; people living longer; and women earning more so they can afford to go it alone.
Let’s look first at people living alone: In San Diego County, that accounts for 25 percent of all the households. Our county is on the low side when you look at places like Washington, D.C., Seattle and Atlanta, all of which have more than 40 percent of their population living alone. (In the 1950 U.S. census, people living alone accounted for only 10 percent of all households.)
Eric Klinenberg at New York University opines that the living alone concept “is a reflection of values that many view as inherently American: freedom, personal control and self-realization.”
People are living longer; the average age in San Diego County has risen from 31 to 34.7 years in the past two decades (so people age and stay in their child-free homes longer).
Families are getting smaller. Only one of seven households in this county has a mom, dad and two kids. "Leave it to Beaver" is history.
Now the reason I have rambled on about the changing demographics of our county relates to our housing needs. SANDAG has projected an average household size of about 2.8 over the next few decades. I think that is a bit on the high side. Inevitably, households will have fewer people.
Based on declining household size, the housing supply of our county will have to change fairly dramatically to accommodate future generations. Because much of the future household gain will be urban, high-density housing needs to be developed in tandem with viable transportation systems.
In a similar vein, with more persons living alone or in two-person households, it is highly likely that two cars per household will not be needed. That has a major impact on parking ratios. For instance, in the city of San Diego, under present zoning, studio apartments (typically, 400-500 square feet) are required to have 1.5 parking spaces per unit. The parking square footage is more than that in the living unit. Patently absurd.
In the same vein, there will be an ongoing acceleration of dining out and attending public events, including dog-walking in public parks. In other words, the home will become more of a place to rest and to be alone, with a much heavier emphasis on other activities that “animate the streets.” That last quote is from Julie Stern of the Urban Land Institute.
To accommodate a growing San Diego, the county needs a proliferation of villages that act as the centerpiece of high-density housing complexes. Currently, downtown San Diego is the only village in the county.
For San Diego County, urbanization is inevitable, and community planning groups that rail against higher densities are out of tune with reality.
Newly elected officials around the county need to address the many new thoughts about the long-term housing future of San Diego, or they might just kick the can down the road, as they have in the past.
Nevin is a principal with The London Group Realty Advisors. He can be reached at alan.nevin@sddt.com.
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