May 16 (Bloomberg) -- Brent headed for its first weekly advance this month amid speculation that escalating tension in Ukraine may disrupt supplies from Russia, the world’s biggest energy exporter. West Texas Intermediate rose in New York.
Futures were little changed in London and are up 1.2 percent this week. Ukrainian forces moved to flush separatists from their eastern holdouts as diplomats from the U.S. and U.K. vowed to punish Russia with industrywide sanctions if this month’s presidential election is undermined. Global demand for OPEC’s crude will be stronger in the second half of 2014 than previously estimated, the International Energy Agency said.
“The risk is the outbreak of war and for that reason we have an upward bias,” Michael McCarthy, a chief strategist at CMC Markets in Sydney, said by phone today. “The longer the situation drags on without a conflagration, the less it weighs on traders’ minds. It’s certainly an issue at the moment.”
Brent for July settlement was 11 cents higher at $109.20 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange at 5 p.m. Sydney time. The volume of all futures traded was about 18 percent below the 100-day average. The June contract expired yesterday after climbing 25 cents to $110.44.
WTI for June delivery rose as much as 54 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $102.04 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices have gained 1.8 percent this week. The U.S. benchmark crude closed at a discount of $8.94 to Brent yesterday. The July spread is at $7.85 today.
Discord over Ukraine’s election risks another round of escalation as the government in Kiev and its U.S. and European Union allies blame Russia for the unrest in the eastern regions. Russian calls to include rebels in national unity talks that began May 14 in the Ukrainian capital were rejected as the meetings opened without separatist leaders’ participation.
The U.S. and its allies will impose “sectoral economic sanctions” if “Russia or its proxies” disrupt Ukraine’s election, Secretary of State John Kerry said in London yesterday after meeting his counterparts from the U.K., Italy, France and Germany. Separatists are “sowing mayhem” and seeking to “speak for everyone through the barrel of a gun.”
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will need to supply an average 30.7 million barrels a day of crude from July to December, or 800,000 a day more than it pumped last month, the IEA said yesterday. This calls for 140,000 barrels a day more from OPEC than forecast in April as stronger-than- projected consumption has kept stockpiles “tight” in developed nations, the Paris-based agency said in its monthly report.
WTI may drop next week amid speculation U.S. crude inventories at near-record levels expanded further, a Bloomberg News survey shows. Twelve of 29 analysts and traders, or 41 percent, said futures will decline through May 23 while 10 respondents predict a gain.