The National Association of Business Economists has released the results of its most recent survey today and two-thirds of its members expect the Federal Reserve will begin raising short-term interest rates before the end of 2010. In addition, a majority of economists believe that mortgage interest rates will likely increase later this month when the Fed completes its planned purchase of mortgage-backed securities. The NABE is headed this year by Dr. Lynn Reaser, the recently appointed chief economist at Point Loma Nazarene University.
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The report by the Labor Department on Friday that U.S. payrolls declined by 36,000 in February was "better than expected" and led to a sharp rally in stocks. The Dow Jones industrials gained 122 points and closed out another profitable week. The big winner was the Nasdaq, up 3.9 percent. The S&P 500 was up 3.1 percent and the Dow added 2.3 percent. That makes two weeks in a row of strong gains. Year to date, the Nasdaq is up 2.5 percent, the S&P 500 was gained 2.1 percent, and the Dow is also up 1.3 percent.
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Friday's Conversations 2010 sponsored by the North San Diego County Association of Realtors was a success. More than 120 people attended the event that was a wide discussion of current and future trends in home prices and the economy. Realtors, as a group, are optimistic but their attitudes — along with the opinions of the panelists — were guarded. There was agreement that long-term the demand for housing will exceed the supply as land use, financing and other factors will keep new construction in check. However, near-term, there was less optimism based on tight lending conditions, problems in the job market, a choking appraisal situation, and the specter of a flood of foreclosures have most people concerned.
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There is some good news on the job front this morning. The Conference Board's Employment Trends Index rose in February for the sixth consecutive month. During the past six months, the index rose by 13.4 percent, the fastest growth rate since 1994. Economist Gad Levanon said the increase "suggests that job growth is about to begin. The past two jobless recoveries in 1991 and 2002 were a result of a continuous decline in manufacturing employment. This time, the strong recovery in manufacturing production has already led to two consecutive monthly increases in manufacturing employment." Do not dismiss this information, it is very critical to the coming recovery.
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New federal funding, in the form of $700 million, is coming to California to help the state's neediest homeowners struggling with mortgage payments remain in their homes. The California Housing Finance Agency said it will submit a plan to the federal government by the middle of April that will assist low- and moderate-income homeowners, in particular those who are unemployed, or who owe significantly more than their homes are now worth. Your tax dollars at work.
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More than 120 million households across the country will be getting a letter this week to notify them that that they will soon be receiving their 2010 Census forms. The one-page letter urges households to complete the 10-question census form when it arrives and to return it in the accompanying prepaid envelope as soon as possible. Your tax dollars at work.
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A new survey finds that more men (82 percent) than women (75 percent) enjoy preparing meals. According to AllRecipes.com, "Our research shows that men genuinely enjoy cooking but have uniquely masculine interests and tastes." Of course, most women would say that while men do like to cook, they just don't do it. At least that is what my wife would say.
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