In San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, home prices, including distressed sales, increased by 0.8 percent in August 2012 compared to August 2011 and increased by 0.1 percent in July 2012 compared to July 2011, according to the August Home Price Index report by CoreLogic (NYSE: CLGX).
On a month-over-month basis, home prices including distressed sales, increased by 0.1 percent in August 2012 compared to July 2012.
Excluding distressed sales, year-over-year prices increased by 4.3 percent in August 2012 compared to August 2011 and increased by 2.8 percent in July 2012 compared to July 2011. On a month-over-month basis, excluding distressed sales, the CoreLogic HPI indicates home prices increased by 0.6 percent in August 2012 compared to July 2012.
Nationwide home prices, including distressed sales, increased on a year-over-year basis by 4.6 percent in August 2012 compared to August 2011, according to CoreLogic. This change represents the biggest year-over-year increase since July 2006.
On a month-over-month basis, including distressed sales, home prices increased by 0.3 percent in August 2012 compared to July 2012.
The August 2012 figures mark the sixth consecutive increase in home prices nationally on both a year-over-year and month-over-month basis.
The HPI analysis from CoreLogic shows that all but six states are experiencing price gains.
Excluding distressed sales, home prices nationwide increased on a year-over-year basis by 4.9 percent in August 2012 compared to August 2011.
On a month-over-month basis excluding distressed sales, home prices increased 1 percent in August 2012 compared to July 2012, also the sixth consecutive month-over-month increase. Distressed sales include short sales and real estate owned (REO) transactions, according to CoreLogic.
The CoreLogic Pending HPI indicates that September 2012 home prices, including distressed sales, are expected to rise by 5 percent on a year-over-year basis from September 2011 and fall by 0.3 percent on a month-over-month basis from August 2012 as the summer buying season closes out.
Excluding distressed sales, September 2012 house prices are poised to rise 6.3 percent year-over-year from September 2011 and by 0.6 percent month-over-month from August 2012.
The CoreLogic Pending HPI is based on Multiple Listing Service (MLS) data that measure price changes in the most recent month.
"Sustained economic recovery in the U.S. requires a healthy housing market. You cannot have a healthy housing market without price stabilization and ultimately home price appreciation," said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic.
"Improving pricing trends over the past few months and our forecast for continued gains in September bode well for a progressive rebound in the residential housing market."
Including distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the national HPI (from April 2006 to August 2012) was minus 26.7 percent.
Excluding distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the HPI for the same period was minus 19.9 percent.
The five states with the largest peak-to-current declines, including distressed transactions, are Nevada (-54.7 percent), Florida (-44.3 percent), Arizona (-42.0 percent), California (-37.7 percent) and Michigan (-36.5 percent).
National yearly home price growth of 3.6 percent picked up in September, with additional gains of 2.2 percent forecasted through winter, according to Clear Capital’s Home Data Index Market Report.
San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos posted a 4.8 percent yearly growth. Over the next two quarters, San Diego prices are projected to expand another 3.2 percent. REO saturation in San Diego is at 17.2 percent.
“While housing continued to make progress in September, we've turned our focus to the impending fiscal cliff,” said Dr. Alex Villacorta, director of research and analytics at Clear Capital.
“With forecasted gains of 2.2 percent over the next six months, the threat of the fiscal cliff could throw a wrench into the recovery," he said.
Far more markets are improving than declining, according to Clear Capital. Its forecast shows the recovery will sustain the typically slow winter, and start the spring buying season strong.
Economic uncertainty will keep buyers on the sidelines. Threatening to temper confidence is the fear Congress will not act in time to avert the looming fiscal cliff.
Home prices finally saw relief in early 2012, following improvement in consumer sentiment, according to Clear Capital.
Strength in consumer sentiment also corresponded with the only two housing improvements since the bottom in 2009. Between March 2009 and June 2010, consumer sentiment rebounded 32.6 percent.
Over the same period, home prices went from seeing yearly declines of 22.7 percent to yearly growth of 4.0 percent.
Similarly, between December 2011 and September 2012, consumer sentiment gained 12 percent, and home prices moved from yearly losses of 2.3 percent to gains of 3.6 percent.
Consumer sentiment is up 31.8 percent and homebuilder confidence is at a five year high, according to Clear Capital. While the Fed's recent announcement of QE3 should further boost expectations for housing, it might not be enough to overcome fear of the cliff.
The West posted quarterly gains of 3.7 percent, the fifth consecutive month its led regional gains, according to Clear Capital. The Midwest and South regions had quarterly home price gains of 1.9 percent and 1.3 percent, respectively. The Northeast posted the weakest quarterly gains of 0.2 percent.
National prices closed out the third quarter 3.6 percent higher than the previous year. If the looming fiscal cliff is averted, the national home price forecast through Q1 2013 projects a 2.2 percent gain, according to Clear Capital.
At the regional level, the West continued to dominate with 9.4 percent in yearly gains, according to Clear Capital. This is the highest yearly gain the region has recorded since the second quarter in 2006.
The first in, first out recovery has been driven by harder hit markets, many of which reside in the West. Forecasted gains of 5.3 percent over the next six months in the West are projected to drive a sustained recovery at the national level through winter.