Forecasts by the San Diego Association of Governments call for growth by a million people in the region during the next two decades. The majority of that growth, notes the 2003 report, will occur in eastern Chula Vista and Otay Mesa.

Already Chula Vista ranks No. 7 on the list of fastest-growing big cities in the nation, according to U.S. Census Bureau figures for July 1, 2001, to July 1, 2002.

Local real estate analyst Alan Nevin of MarketPoint Realty Advisors sees the trend continuing. In the past, 70 percent of the region's growth was in North County and just 15 percent in South County; current figures show 40 percent of all new home construction in San Diego County is occurring in South County. As developable land disappears and home prices skyrocket in North County, Nevin says developers and homebuyers alike are turning their attention south.

"There's virtually no large tracts of developable land available for home builders in North County," Nevin said, while noting that superior growth opportunities still exist in the south, where eight major master-planned communities have been developed since the 1970s. As housing prices continue to rise in most of San Diego, many homebuyers are finding a wider range of more affordably priced homes in these large-scale planned communities, which are keeping the southern area booming with economic development.

According to a June 2003 DataQuick Information Services report, the median new home price in San Diego County, as of March 2003, is $488,000. In North County, almost half the new home developments are selling at $500,000 or more. New home communities in the land-rich South County, however, fall below $400,000. The average new detached home in South County is $350,000 with attached homes' midway point just under $300,000.

Hot spot for housing starts

In the first half of 2003, home builders broke ground on more than 1,800 new homes in the southern stretches of the county, according to Nevin. He estimates 3,000 detached and 500 attached homes -- along with another 500 condominium conversion units -- will come on line in the South County this year.

The bulk of new home communities popping up are east of Interstate 805 in Chula Vista, where, according to the latest census figures, the median household income in 2000 was $45,000 and property values grew that year by more than $1 billion to reach today's tally of $8.35 billion. In addition to Otay Ranch, Rolling Hills Ranch, Lomas Verdes and San Miguel Ranch, groundbreaking ceremonies were recently held for the area's newest master-planned community, Windingwalk.

The 2,264-home Windingwalk, being developed by Brookfield Homes and Shea Homes in eastern Chula Vista, is the latest example of the ongoing commitment by the region's top home builders to fill a strong demand for new housing in that burgeoning region.

"Perceptions of South County have changed dramatically in the last decade, and the region really has come into its own with the recent residential and commercial boom," says Steve Doyle, president of Brookfield San Diego Inc., which builds homes throughout San Diego and Riverside counties. He says the area now boasts family-oriented neighborhoods with top-notch schools and an abundance of recreational, cultural and retail amenities -- the same qualities that put North County on homebuyers' maps.

Move-up market explodes

Home builder Bill Davidson, well-known for luxury estate homes in upscale North County neighborhoods, also is impressed with today's soaring South County housing scene.

"This is a bright spot in the county not only for first-time homebuyers but for the move-up and high-end buyer as well," said Davidson, whose Del Mar-based Davidson Communities currently is building 115 single-family homes at Acqua at EastLake Vistas. Selling out each phase as it is released, Davidson's Acqua is geared to the exploding move-up market in South County. Featuring Davidson's trademark architectural styling and interior features, Acqua prices start in the mid-$500,000s.

Named for its proximity to Otay Lakes, homes in Acqua range from approximately 3,012 square feet to 3,638 square feet. Offering a diverse palette of architecture, including classic Spanish, Craftsman and Contemporary Italian styling, Acqua homes feature four different floor plans with extended courtyards and deep covered porches. The two-story floor plans feature four to five bedrooms, 3.5 to 4.5 baths and two-car, tandem and three-car garages.

"The South County area has an outstanding reputation for a great quality of life, and our tremendous sales success at Acqua underscores that South County has become the newest hot spot for home seekers in all price ranges," Davidson said.

Esterbrooks is a freelance writer.