Jan. 15, 2004
Bob Burson, On Finance columnist:
Unfortunately, I believe we are in the eye of America's perfect economic storm. The consensus regarding this period of tranquility is that it will last until close to the election. America is currently facing the prospects of two significant deficits: the federal budget deficit and the balance of payments deficit. However, relying on the consensus time frame may produce unintended economic consequences.
To come to grip with the budget deficit, the government must either cut spending or raise taxes. Recently it has appeared capable of doing neither. Thus the only form of economic adjustment available seems to be inflation; that is, to improve the asset to debt ratio, the government must monetize the debt.
Of course, foreign investors will find the inflation solution as unacceptable, requiring either the reduction in value of their currencies or an increase in our interest rates. Rising interest rates will cause the value of many assets to fall, as well as to increase the cost of leverage.
This would argue for investments in unleveraged real assets or other inflation-protected assets.
Peg Eddy, Family Business Matters columnist:
In light of the very real probability that interest rates will rise, when we re-optimize our clients' portfolios, we have been using shorter-term bonds and bond funds to lessen the interest rate. Bond experts, such as Bill Gross, have been warning investors that the "heyday in bonds is over;" we agree and have been responding accordingly.
Elizabeth Ruch, On Finance columnist:
It is not important whether the interest rates are rising or declining, or whether the stock market is up or down. What is important is that you have a sound written financial strategy to create the financial future you desire. Your investments and insurance programs must work in harmony to achieve your goals. Make sure you have strategies in place that will allow you to take advantage of the movements in the various markets, but do not go chasing returns and yields!